Opinion | Xi Jinping Can’t Take Taiwan Until He Tames His Own Generals

As tensions continue to rise between China and Taiwan, the question of whether or not Chinese President Xi Jinping will attempt to forcibly take control of the island nation looms large. While many analysts have debated the likelihood of such a move and its potential consequences, one key factor that is often overlooked is the role of the Chinese military in shaping Beijing’s foreign policy decisions.

Xi Jinping may be the supreme leader of China, but he is not immune to the influences of the country’s powerful military leaders. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) holds significant sway over Chinese foreign policy, especially when it comes to matters of national security and territorial integrity. Any decision to use military force against Taiwan would likely be heavily influenced by the opinions and recommendations of top military officials.

In recent years, the PLA has undergone significant modernization and expansion, with a focus on developing cutting-edge military technology and improving combat readiness. This has bolstered China’s military capabilities and raised concerns among neighboring countries, including Taiwan and the United States. The PLA’s growing strength has emboldened some military leaders to advocate for a more assertive foreign policy, including potentially taking control of Taiwan by force.

However, Xi Jinping faces a delicate balancing act when it comes to managing the ambitions of his military leaders. On one hand, he must demonstrate strength and resolve in order to maintain his authority and credibility as China’s leader. On the other hand, he must also prevent the military from overstepping its bounds and making rash decisions that could lead to conflict and instability in the region.

Xi Jinping’s recent crackdown on corruption within the PLA and efforts to centralize control over the military suggest that he is aware of the potential risks posed by rogue military leaders. By consolidating power and purging disloyal elements from the military, Xi is attempting to ensure that the PLA remains loyal to the Communist Party and follows his directives.

However, Xi’s efforts to tame his own generals may not be enough to prevent a potentially disastrous conflict with Taiwan. The military’s influence over foreign policy decisions, combined with growing nationalist sentiment in China, could push Xi towards taking a more aggressive stance towards Taiwan in the future.

Ultimately, the question of whether or not Xi Jinping will attempt to take control of Taiwan by force will depend on a variety of factors, including the military’s influence, domestic political considerations, and international pressure. While Xi may hold ultimate authority as China’s leader, he cannot ignore the opinions and ambitions of his generals when making decisions about Taiwan.

In order to prevent a potentially catastrophic conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Xi Jinping must continue to assert his control over the PLA and ensure that the military remains loyal to the Communist Party and committed to peaceful resolution of disputes. Only by taming his own generals can Xi hope to avoid a dangerous escalation of tensions with Taiwan and maintain stability in the region.